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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to PIT 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 13-S.Miller ran ob at PIT 43 for 25 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.09 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model