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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.69 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model