4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to PIT 20, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 13-S.Miller.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP