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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 25-A.Szmyt 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model