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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling (21-D.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.82 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP