4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 3-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.51 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP