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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 14.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

ARI
23.8%
LA
76.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.247 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI defense: +0.180 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ARI 20
–
LA 28
Projected margin: LA by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

ARI

Evan Brown G Out Not injury related - personal matter
Josh Sweat LB Questionable Ankle

LA

Kevin Dotson G Out Ankle
Quentin Lake S Out Elbow
Josh Wallace CB Out Ankle
Terrance Ferguson TE Doubtful Hamstring
Davante Adams WR Questionable Hamstring
Tyler Higbee TE Questionable Ankle
Alaric Jackson T Questionable Knee
Kyren Williams RB Questionable Ankle
Blake Corum RB Questionable Ankle
Omar Speights LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 20
–
LA 37

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:11 FG LA (11:11) 92-H.Mevis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. ARI 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 03:30 FG ARI (3:30) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack. ARI 3 – LA 3
  • Q2 11:49 FG LA (11:49) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. ARI 3 – LA 6
  • Q2 09:40 FG ARI (9:40) 38-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack. ARI 6 – LA 6
  • Q2 01:26 TD LA (1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – LA 12
  • Q2 00:05 FG LA (:05) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. ARI 6 – LA 16
  • Q3 10:44 TD ARI (10:44) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-M.Wilson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 12 – LA 16
  • Q3 03:57 TD ARI (3:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 45-J.Deguara for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Fiske]. ARI 19 – LA 16
  • Q3 00:50 TD LA (:50) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – LA 22
  • Q4 10:44 TD LA (10:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – LA 29
  • Q4 04:19 TD LA (4:19) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – LA 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 95%

    (11:11) 92-H.Mevis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 18 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 86%

    (3:30) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (11:49) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 67%

    (9:40) 38-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 99%

    (1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 91%

    (:05) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:53) 42-E.Evans punts 64 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-S.Sims to ARI 27 for 18 yards (56-S.Dolac).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:26) (Punt formation) 39-M.Haack pass deep middle to 31-E.Demercado to LA 43 for 28 yards (19-X.Smith).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:18) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to ARI 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-S.Sims to ARI 24 for 9 yards (34-T.Ingle).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:40) 39-M.Haack punts 52 yards to LA 34, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:27) 39-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LA 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-X.Smith to LA 19 for 9 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson; 31-E.Demercado).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at LA 18 for -7 yards (94-D.Johnson).