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Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Saturday 2026-01-03 · 16:30 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CAR
42.1%
TB
57.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB defense: +0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.034 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.038 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
TB 23
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CAR

Robert Rochell CB Out Concussion
Claudin Cherelus LB Out Calf
David Moore WR Questionable Elbow
Tershawn Wharton DT Questionable Hamstring
Krys Barnes LB Questionable Back
Robert Hunt G Questionable Biceps

TB

Anthony Nelson LB Out Knee
Jamel Dean CB Out Shoulder
Calijah Kancey DT Questionable Pectoral

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 14
–
TB 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:35 TD TB (9:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 02:01 FG TB (2:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CAR 0 – TB 10
  • Q2 10:56 TD CAR (10:56) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG TB (:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on CAR, Illegal Formation, declined. CAR 7 – TB 13
  • Q4 14:17 FG TB (14:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CAR 7 – TB 16
  • Q4 02:31 TD CAR (2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – TB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 28%

    (7:32) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (2:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%

    (14:58) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to TB 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-29-A.Evans.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:30) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CAR 13, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 16 for 3 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 47 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 64%

    (10:31) 10-R.Fitzgerald 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 22%

    (8:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CAR 7, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:37) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 78%

    (14:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

    (5:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-C.Jackson), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 32%

    (3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%

    (:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CAR 3, Center-86-E.Deckers. 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 3 for no gain (48-J.Gray).