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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CLE
19.9%
CIN
80.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.235 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.172 vs Shedeur Sanders (CLE) -0.240 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19
–
CIN 27
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CLE

David Njoku TE Out Knee
Winston Reid LB Out Back
Carson Schwesinger LB Out Ankle
Harold Fannin Jr. TE Out Groin
Myles Harden CB Questionable Shoulder
Kingsley Eguakun C Questionable Knee

CIN

Joseph Ossai DE Out Ankle
Charlie Jones WR Out Ankle
Josh Newton CB Out Hamstring
Matt Lee C Out Knee
B.J. Hill DT Questionable Ankle
Cam Grandy TE Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 20
–
CIN 18

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:02 TD CIN (8:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 01:11 TD CLE (1:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush (93-S.Harris) at CLE 3. 30-D.Bush for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-30-D.Bush, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CLE 6 – CIN 6
  • Q2 14:19 TD CLE (14:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 86-N.Fant to CIN 46 for 5 yards (17-J.Baker; 9-G.Delpit). FUMBLES (17-J.Baker), RECOVERED by CLE-27-S.Webb at CIN 47. 27-S.Webb for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-27-S.Webb, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 13 – CIN 6
  • Q2 00:33 TD CIN (:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-27-S.Webb, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. CLE 14 – CIN 12
  • Q3 08:05 FG CLE (8:05) 25-A.Szmyt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 17 – CIN 12
  • Q4 01:34 TD CIN (1:34) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-27-S.Webb was injured during the play. CLE 17 – CIN 18
  • Q4 00:03 FG CLE (:03) 25-A.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. ** Injury Update: CIN-23-D.Hill has returned to the game. CLE 20 – CIN 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:52) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-W.Wagner. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 5 for 2 yards (37-P.Jules; 43-J.Giles-Harris).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to CIN 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-K.Williams pushed ob at CIN 30 for 8 yards (20-D.Ross; 86-B.Whiteheart).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 37%

    (9:51) 8-R.Rehkow punts 38 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 18 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (7:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to CIN 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 50 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-W.Wagner. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 30 for 4 yards (37-P.Jules).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CIN 19, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-K.Williams to CIN 21 for 2 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (13:13) 3-J.Jeudy left end to CLE 49 for 5 yards (49-B.Carter).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 98%

    (8:05) 25-A.Szmyt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%

    (4:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki to CLE 44 for 3 yards (30-D.Bush).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 52%

    (2:02) 8-R.Rehkow punts 35 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (10:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to CIN 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 12-K.Williams.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 37%

    (3:56) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to CIN 36, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-K.Williams to CIN 39 for 3 yards (28-T.Avery).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 80%

    (:03) 25-A.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. ** Injury Update: CIN-23-D.Hill has returned to the game.