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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

DAL
54.2%
NYG
45.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Jaxson Dart (NYG) -0.029 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.183 EPA/dropback
  • DAL defense: +0.180 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than NYG

Predicted Final Score

DAL 26
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

DAL

Javonte Williams RB Out Shoulder
Malik Davis RB Out Calf
DeMarvion Overshown LB Out Concussion
TJ Bass G Out Knee
Shavon Revel Jr. CB Out Concussion
Payton Turner DE Questionable Ribs
Josh Butler CB Questionable Knee
Phil Mafah RB Questionable Shoulder

NYG

Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Out Ankle
Jevon Holland S Out Knee
Evan Neal G Out Neck
Cordale Flott CB Out Knee
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Out Rib
Theo Johnson TE Out Illness
Jalin Hyatt WR Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 17
–
NYG 34

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:20 FG NYG (9:20) 30-B.Sauls 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. DAL 0 – NYG 3
  • Q1 05:24 FG DAL (5:24) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – NYG 3
  • Q1 01:20 FG NYG (1:20) 30-B.Sauls 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. DAL 3 – NYG 6
  • Q1 00:32 TD DAL (:32) (Shotgun) 23-J.Blue up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – NYG 6
  • Q2 09:48 FG NYG (9:48) 30-B.Sauls 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. DAL 10 – NYG 9
  • Q2 00:31 TD NYG (:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-J.Houston]. DAL 10 – NYG 15
  • Q3 09:53 TD NYG (9:53) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 29-T.Tracy for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-J.Houston]. Penalty on DAL-92-Q.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. PENALTY on DAL-41-D.Ezeiruaku, Disqualification, 1 yard, enforced between downs. DAL 10 – NYG 22
  • Q4 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) 37-P.Mafah right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – NYG 24
  • Q4 09:25 FG NYG (9:25) 30-B.Sauls 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. DAL 17 – NYG 27
  • Q4 05:54 TD NYG (5:54) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – NYG 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 33%

    (12:39) 12-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to DAL 1, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-23-A.Green.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 86%

    (9:20) 30-B.Sauls 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (5:24) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (1:20) 30-B.Sauls 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.79 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (9:48) 30-B.Sauls 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%

    (2:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (36-R.Payton). Penalty on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:47) 5-B.Anger punts 65 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 38 for 21 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker; 40-H.Luepke).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 59%

    (6:56) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 38%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Milton left end pushed ob at NYG 24 for 23 yards (36-R.Payton).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (9:25) 30-B.Sauls 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:29) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYG 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 21 for 6 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:27) 12-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to DAL 38, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.