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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 12.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

GB
36.1%
MIN
63.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIN: J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.247 vs Clayton Tune (GB) -1.214 EPA/dropback (MIN starting J.J. McCarthy in place of Max Brosmer; GB starting Clayton Tune in place of Malik Willis)
  • GB offense: +0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

GB 21
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

GB

Nick Niemann LB Out Pectoral
Donovan Jennings G Out Throat
Savion Williams WR Out Foot
John Williams G Out Back
Dontayvion Wicks WR Doubtful Concussion
Zach Bako-Bewele T Questionable Back
Malik Willis QB Questionable Shoulder

MIN

Aaron Jones RB Out Hip
T.J. Hockenson TE Out Shoulder
Gavin Bartholomew TE Out Back
Myles Price WR Out Ankle
Dwight McGlothern CB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 3
–
MIN 16

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:32 FG MIN (10:32) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. GB 0 – MIN 3
  • Q2 03:05 FG MIN (3:05) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. GB 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 00:25 TD MIN (:25) 30-C.Ham left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – MIN 12
  • Q4 04:13 FG MIN (4:13) 16-W.Reichard 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. GB 0 – MIN 16
  • Q4 00:01 FG GB (:01) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – MIN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%

    (10:32) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:14) 19-D.Whelan punts 62 yards to MIN 2, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-16-B.Melton.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:36) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to GB 30, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-26-T.Jackson.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 18 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (:51) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to GB 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to MIN 22, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 82-J.Jones.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:41) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to GB 30, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 30%

    (9:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to MIN 9, Center-42-M.Orzech. 82-J.Jones to MIN 9 for no gain (16-B.Melton). GB-16-B.Melton was injured during the play.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 92%

    (4:34) (No Huddle) 9-J.McCarthy up the middle to GB 20 for 1 yard (57-B.Cox; 33-E.Williams). Green Bay challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (3:05) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 15 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%

    (10:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 30 yards to MIN 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 82-J.Jones.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (7:16) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to GB 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 84-J.Keeney-James.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 20 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 57 yards to MIN 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 82-J.Jones to MIN 8 for 5 yards (34-S.Bartholomew).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to MIN 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 82-J.Jones.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (4:13) 16-W.Reichard 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (:01) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.