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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

KC
48.3%
LV
51.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.225 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Kenny Pickett (LV) -0.047 vs Chris Oladokun (KC) -0.337 EPA/dropback (LV starting Kenny Pickett in place of Geno Smith)
  • KC offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • KC on 3 more days rest than LV
  • KC defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 22
–
LV 24
Projected margin: LV by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

KC

Trey Smith G Out Ankle
Jake Briningstool TE Out Hamstring
Xavier Worthy WR Doubtful Illness
Jerry Tillery DT Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Jaylon Moore T Questionable Knee
George Karlaftis DE Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Isiah Pacheco RB Questionable Not injury related - resting player

LV

Geno Smith QB Out Ankle
Adam Butler DT Out Biceps
Dylan Parham G Out Illness
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 12
–
LV 14

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:03 FG KC (5:03) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 3 – LV 0
  • Q2 07:24 FG LV (7:24) 8-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 3 – LV 3
  • Q2 01:56 FG LV (1:56) 8-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 3 – LV 6
  • Q3 04:16 FG KC (4:16) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 6 – LV 6
  • Q4 13:21 FG LV (13:21) 8-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 6 – LV 9
  • Q4 04:42 SAF LV (4:42) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele sacked in End Zone for -10 yards, SAFETY (9-T.Wilson). KC 6 – LV 11
  • Q4 03:37 FG KC (3:37) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 9 – LV 11
  • Q4 01:05 FG KC (1:05) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 12 – LV 11
  • Q4 00:13 FG LV (:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 12 – LV 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:06) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to LV 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 42 for 14 yards (40-E.Downs; 59-C.McDonald).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 11 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 44%

    (10:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to LV 5, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 4.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:38) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to KC 46, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith ran ob at KC 46 for no gain.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (5:03) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:14) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith pushed ob at KC 20 for 11 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on KC, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:41) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LV 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 27 for 11 yards (59-C.McDonald).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:38) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-I.Pola-Mao. 20-I.Pola-Mao right guard to LV 36 for 3 yards (12-J.Wiley).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (7:24) 8-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:27) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 12 for no gain (13-N.Johnson).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:23) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to KC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 24-B.Smith.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (1:56) 8-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 86%

    (11:49) 70-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to KC 28 for -1 yards (32-N.Bolton).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 30%

    (9:07) 72-C.Godrick and 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (96-J.Laulu).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%

    (4:16) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 69%

    (13:21) 8-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:30) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LV 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at LV 21 for no gain (2-J.Williams).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:31) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to KC 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LV 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:06) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to KC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith to KC 6 for -1 yards (4-S.Jackson).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 18 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 84%

    (3:37) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:36) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to KC 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith pushed ob at KC 26 for 3 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (1:05) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 42 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 57%

    (:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.