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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

LAC
34.8%
DEN
65.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DEN: Bo Nix (DEN) +0.119 vs Trey Lance (LAC) -0.015 EPA/dropback (LAC starting Trey Lance in place of Justin Herbert)
  • LAC offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 20
–
DEN 23
Projected margin: DEN by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

LAC

Nikko Reed CB Out Hamstring
Omarion Hampton RB Out Ankle
Elijah Molden S Doubtful Hamstring
Jamaree Salyer G Doubtful Hamstring
Bradley Bozeman C Questionable Concussion
Benjamin St-Juste CB Questionable Shoulder
Hassan Haskins RB Questionable Concussion
Kimani Vidal RB Questionable Neck
R.J. Mickens S Questionable Shoulder

DEN

Dre Greenlaw LB Out Hamstring
Karene Reid LB Out Hamstring
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 3
–
DEN 19

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:09 FG DEN (5:09) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. LAC 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 03:50 TD DEN (3:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at LAC 45. 29-J.McMillian for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – DEN 9
  • Q2 00:06 FG LAC (:06) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – DEN 10
  • Q3 10:10 FG DEN (10:10) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. LAC 3 – DEN 13
  • Q4 11:49 FG DEN (11:49) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. LAC 3 – DEN 16
  • Q4 02:26 FG DEN (2:26) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. LAC 3 – DEN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:06) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (5:09) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:04) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:41) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 54 yards to LAC 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-34-J.Skinner.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (14:19) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to LAC 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 27 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice; 40-J.Strnad).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:54) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:03) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 36 yards to LAC 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 48%

    (1:30) 28-H.Haskins right end to DEN 40 for 3 yards (21-R.Moss; 9-T.Hufanga).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:16) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:21) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DEN 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 40 for 3 yards (24-B.St-Juste; 33-D.Leonard).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (10:10) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:19) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 45 for 33 yards (58-M.Wax).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 35%

    (3:40) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:45) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DEN 19, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to LAC 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (11:49) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%

    (8:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 30-K.Vidal to DEN 44 for -2 yards (2-P.Surtain).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (2:26) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance scrambles left end ran ob at DEN 44 for 15 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 71%

    (:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 9-T.Harris pushed ob at DEN 22 for 12 yards (23-J.Barron).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete short right.