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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 38

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model