4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.38 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 19, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model