Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 10 – Atlanta Falcons 16

(9:53) 32-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to ATL 24 for 9 yards (53-J.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model