Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 87

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 32-K.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Robinson, Center-49-Z.Wood, RECOVERED by ATL-84-F.Franks at NO 8. 84-F.Franks pushed ob at NO 5 for 3 yards (7-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.50 EP
59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 87, worth -5.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model