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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Saturday 2026-01-03 · 20:00 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

SEA
36.9%
SF
63.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.209 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.267 vs Sam Darnold (SEA) +0.127 EPA/dropback
  • SF defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.012 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
SF 27
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

SEA

Charles Cross T Out Hamstring
Coby Bryant S Doubtful Knee
Josh Jones T Questionable Ankle

SF

Trent Williams T Questionable Hamstring
George Kittle TE Questionable Ankle
Keion White DE Questionable Groin
Ricky Pearsall WR Questionable Knee
Upton Stout CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 13
–
SF 3

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 36 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:37 TD SEA (4:37) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – SF 0
  • Q2 05:23 FG SEA (5:23) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – SF 0
  • Q2 01:10 FG SF (1:10) 18-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SEA 10 – SF 3
  • Q4 14:18 FG SEA (14:18) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 13 – SF 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:04) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to SEA 39, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed to 50 for 11 yards (46-J.Weeks). PENALTY on SF-49-G.Wallow, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:33) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 13 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 81%

    (12:32) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 59%

    (9:41) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 44-K.Juszczyk (27-T.Woolen) [90-J.Reed].

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 84%

    (5:23) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 79%

    (1:10) 18-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:21) 7-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 37 for 19 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 42%

    (6:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to SF 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (4:37) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to SEA 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (14:18) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (2:24) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Kittle [58-D.Hall]. SF-13-B.Purdy was injured during the play.