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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 12.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TEN
19.4%
JAX
80.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.183 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Cam Ward (TEN): -0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 17
–
JAX 28
Projected margin: JAX by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

TEN

Arden Key LB Out Hip
Van Jefferson WR Out Forearm
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out Achilles
Gunnar Helm TE Out Toe
Oluwafemi Oladejo LB Out Fibula
Amani Hooker S Doubtful Ankle
Ali Gaye LB Questionable Knee
Bryce Oliver WR Questionable Knee

JAX

Patrick Mekari G Out Back
Jalen McLeod LB Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 7
–
JAX 41

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:16 TD TEN (10:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-1-C.Ward was injured during the play. TEN 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 06:08 TD JAX (6:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 11-P.Washington for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – JAX 6
  • Q2 11:50 TD JAX (11:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – JAX 13
  • Q2 08:20 TD JAX (8:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass short middle intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 26-An.Johnson at JAX 42. 26-An.Johnson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – JAX 20
  • Q2 02:00 TD JAX (2:00) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 80-Q.Morris for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – JAX 27
  • Q2 00:03 FG JAX (:03) 39-C.Little 67 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 7 – JAX 31
  • Q3 01:08 FG JAX (1:08) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 7 – JAX 34
  • Q4 07:32 TD JAX (7:32) 33-B.Tuten right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – JAX 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:15) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 20. 11-P.Washington to JAX 20 for no gain (12-M.Kinsey).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-C.Dike to TEN 31 for 9 yards (51-V.Miller).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (15:00) 3-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:10) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%

    (:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor (23-F.Oluokun).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:30) 3-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 17 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 35%

    (9:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:05) 3-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington to JAX 25 for 6 yards (12-M.Kinsey).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 71%

    (1:08) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 32%

    (13:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 66%

    (2:55) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor to JAX 26 for 10 yards (21-C.Braswell).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 71%

    (2:00) 6-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.