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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to BUF 6, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-25-R.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 22, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model