Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

(4:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to BUF 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. BUF-14-T.Shavers was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.92 EP
55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model