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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 29

Buffalo Bills 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 15-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.29 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP