Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(7:58) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to JAX 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.94 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model