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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(:15) 42-E.Evans punts 29 yards to CAR 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.67 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP