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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Hubbard.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model