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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 42-E.Evans punt is BLOCKED by 27-I.Simmons, Center-44-J.McQuaide, recovered by LA-20-R.Rivers at LA 30.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.20 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model