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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 31 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 15-Ji.Horn.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -1.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.79 EP