Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 61

New England Patriots 7 – Houston Texans 10

(10:49) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to HOU 25, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.96 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model