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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 46

New England Patriots 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to HOU 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP