Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 91

Houston Texans 10 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to NE 46, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones to NE 44 for -2 yards (42-J.Ingram; 31-D.Clark). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.60 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 91, worth -5.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model