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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 49

New England Patriots 21 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.07 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model