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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 89

Houston Texans 10 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(:49) 6-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to NE 31, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at HOU 45 for 24 yards (40-A.Brinkman).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.41 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 89, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 46, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model