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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 85

New England Patriots 21 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to HOU 41, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.23 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 43, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model