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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 33

Houston Texans 13 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model