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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 28

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.49 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model