Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 79

Houston Texans 16 – New England Patriots 28

(4:17) 6-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to NE 16, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 28 for 12 yards (42-J.Ingram).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.42 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model