Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 61

New England Patriots 28 – Houston Texans 16

(1:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to HOU 21, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Noel to HOU 28 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.55 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -2.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model