4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 53

Houston Texans 16 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 19-X.Hutchinson (14-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.51 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model