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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 6

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 6, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP