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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 18-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.46 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP