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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(12:10) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 42 for -14 yards (99-L.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model