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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 34

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Bourne (8-C.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.71 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model