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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 41 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to SF 13, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 19 for 6 yards (32-V.Jones; 83-D.Young).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model