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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 41

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.88 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model