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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.89 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model