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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 16-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 80-S.Fehoko, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-30-A.Ingold at LAC 3.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.20 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model