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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 36

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 38-C.Ryland 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.51 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.25 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP