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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 7 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to CHI 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 44 for 23 yards (48-T.Incoom). PENALTY on CAR-84-M.Evans, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 44.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.36 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model