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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 31 – Chicago Bears 38

What Actually Happened

(:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 4-T.McMillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.59 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model