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Cleveland Browns

0-1 HC Todd Monken
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Jacksonville Jaguars

1-0 HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

CLE
14.6%
JAX
85.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (CLE): -0.174 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CLE 15 8–22
–
JAX 29 22–36
Projected margin: JAX by 14 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

CLE

Teven Jenkins G Out Back
Parker Brailsford C Questionable Thumb

JAX

LeQuint Allen Jr. RB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10
–
JAX 34

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 TD JAX (8:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-M.Collins]. CLE 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 01:47 TD JAX (1:47) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 19-J.Cameron for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – JAX 13
  • Q2 09:13 FG JAX (9:13) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CLE 0 – JAX 17
  • Q2 06:24 TD JAX (6:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – JAX 23
  • Q3 12:18 TD JAX (12:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 3-J.Meyers for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – JAX 30
  • Q3 08:34 FG CLE (8:34) 25-A.Szmyt 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – JAX 31
  • Q3 01:52 FG JAX (1:52) 39-C.Little 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CLE 3 – JAX 34
  • Q4 02:00 TD CLE (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 12-D.Boston for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – JAX 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to JAX 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-P.Washington to JAX 26 for -5 yards (50-R.Sunahara).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (15:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to JAX 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 83%

    (9:13) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 35%

    (4:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to JAX 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 30 for 10 yards (46-R.Matiscik; 80-Q.Morris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 98%

    (8:34) 25-A.Szmyt 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%

    (1:52) 39-C.Little 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 83%

    (10:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to JAX 21 for 8 yards (27-C.Ransaw, 47-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (47-D.Gardeck), RECOVERED by JAX-91-A.Armstead at JAX 22. 91-A.Armstead to JAX 24 for 2 yards (44-H.Fannin). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to JAX 22 for 7 yards (27-C.Ransaw).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (8:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at JAX 22 for -6 yards (50-B.Combs).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.

    See the full breakdown →